The Global Energy

There are 190-odd nations represented at the climate talks that started this week, but arguably only two that matter: the “G2” of the US and China. Between them, they account for more than 40 per cent of global carbon emissions, so each has the chance to set an example others will follow. They are also the nations watching each other the closest.

Both have offered to curb emissions by 2020. The US has proposed a 17 per cent cut from its 2005 levels, and on Monday signalled the seriousness of its intent by announcing plans to regulate emissions without waiting for legislation from Congress. China last month set out a plan to cut its emissions per unit of economic output by 40-45 per cent compared with 2005. However, many gathered in Copenhagen believe neither commitment goes far enough.

Barack Obama, the US president, and Wen Jiabao, China’s premier, will attend as the summit closes at the end of next week, when they have a chance to strike a deal face to face, though the likelihood of success hangs in the balance. Ed Crooks and Valentina Romei illustrate the scale of the challenge facing the two countries and how the obstacles could be overcome.

Where we stand China has overtaken the US as the world’s biggest emitter, and its output of CO2 is still rising fast. On its present track, its emissions will be almost double those of the US by 2030. If global emissions are to peak by 2020, as scientists concerned about global warming demand, then output of CO2 must fall in the US and grow more slowly in China. Other countries matter, particularly large emerging economies, but it is the “G2” that really counts.

A hard road to travel Beijing and Washington have both now proposed curbs in their emissions – but only after some foot-dragging. Americans enjoy an energy-hungry lifestyle that they are unwilling to relinquish; while the Chinese aspire to approach those western standards of living. Beijing argues that the US has outsourced its CO2 production by importing manufactured goods. However, there is a big opportunity for China to cut emissions by raising the efficiency of industries such as steel and power generation to US levels.

A cleaner future Keeping emissions at a level that scientists say gives a fair chance of avoiding an unacceptable rise in temperatures will require a very different future for both the US and China. Each will have to use much less coal-fired electricity, for example, and opt instead for more renewables. Above all, people will have to use less energy. In the case of China, that means more energy than today, but less than they might have used without emissions curbs. In the US, it means using less than today – a difficult but a must adjustment.